There is no satisfactory theory of electromagnetic solar activity. There are hypotheses that only partially and approximately describe the situation. Most of these hypotheses are based on hydrodynamics. The situation is complicated by the fact that the Sun is a plasma held together by strong gravity and explosive thermonuclear processes. I would also like to emphasize that powerful weak interaction processes occur inside the star (as evidenced by the neutrino flux emitted by the Sun). Within the framework of quantum theory, electromagnetic and weak interactions are unified into a single electro-weak interaction.

    Personally, it seems to me that:
1. The theory of Waldmeier (see Wikipedia: Solar cycle) is closest to the truth; that is, something like charging a battery occurs with some probability of its discharge via a short circuit...
2. I believe that complex information processes underlie solar activity, processes that are directly related to the origin and development of life on Earth.

    I am trying to analyze the simplest indicator of solar activity - the Wolf numbers. Data for the last 325 years were obtained here: //www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/

    First, we find the line that best fits the Wolf numbers over the period from 1700 to 2025:

a := slope(k(N), C) = 0.076
b := intercept(k(N), C) = 66.341

- here: N = 325, k(N) is a vector whose entries form the sequential series of numbers from 1 to 325, C is the vector of Wolf numbers corresponding to those 325 years; and the line a"k(N) + b is "closest" to C (the precise definition is described in the article cited below).

    What such a line means will be determined by the Monte Carlo method. First, we generate 1000 random variables distributed in the same way as C; for each of them, we compute its slope - this yields a vector v. We then compute the empirical distribution function h(t, v) of the vector v. We see that it follows a normal distribution pnorm(t, mean(v), stdev(v)). Next, we evaluate the parameter a relative to this distribution. We obtain the following result:



max(v) = 0.095     min(v) = -0.106
h(a, v) = 0.987     h(v > a) = 13
a > mean(v) + 2•stdev(v)
1 - pnorm(a, mean(v), stdev(v)) = 0.016

    We observe that the slope a consistently exceeds two standard deviations above the mean, the probability of which is about 1.6% (the slopes are normally distributed). Therefore, most likely there are non?random causes for this. It is difficult to say exactly what they might be, given that we have a relatively small statistical sample - only 325 years of observations. It is possible that oscillations with periods that are quite large but less than 325 years cause a temporary increase in the moving average (due to their phases).

    One possible reason, however, is the existence of solar?activity oscillations with longer periods. As I show in the article cited below, one of the probable oscillations may have a period of over one million years. Moreover, the amplitude of the oscillation may be so high that the transformation of the Sun into a red giant will occur not in billions, but in millions of years. Of course, this is a controversial and even questionable conclusion, which I note in the article.

    The current increase may lead to certain complications in our lives over the next 150 years and beyond: acceleration of global warming, increased seismic activity of the Earth, additional strain on our health, and disruptions to electrical equipment...

    Thus, the detailed conclusions and evidence can be found here:

Wolf Numbers and Statistics