Аннотация: Why I look skeptically at LukashenkoSwiftDown2020. A political science essay.
Why I look skeptically at LukashenkoSwiftDown2020. A political science essay.
On the 'SWIFT ВОПРОСЫ-ОТВЕТЫ' ['SWIFT Q&A'] website, I found "an explanation of all the pros and cons of disconnecting Belarus from SWIFT." (https://sites.google.com/view/swift2020/)
I went to this site following the link from the site of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. (https://tsikhanouskaya.org/ru/)
1. I'll start with the positive.
Why do I like the idea of disconnecting from SWIFT? By itself, I don't like this idea. But I like that it actually arose, that it got a design, and that this idea is slightly is rotating in the air, like ten million truncheons - not rubber, but financial ones. Let them be afraid!
2. Now the negative. Why don't I like the idea of disconnecting from SWIFT? (I called this idea as "LukashenkoSwiftDown2020" for brevity).
2.1. Purely subjectively, I am building a logical chain: 500 days program - Marshall plan for Belarus - LukashenkoSwiftDown2020 ...
This logical chain has its metaphorical description in the tale of Pinocchio [Buratino], who buried gold coins in the Field of Miracles with the expectation of a large profit.
In other words, there is a secret, and there are people who know this secret. They will reveal this secret. Or they will do a friendly act, a favor. In general, happiness will suddenly come, happy times ...
Usually, it is not the casino player that becomes rich, but the casino owner.
I would prefer to rely on those, who support the Belarusian people, - on 'ordinary' Europeans, on fathers and mothers of families, on traditional political structures. If they pulled Poland out after the partition of 1795, then they will most likely pull out Belarus with greater ease ...
2.2. LukashenkoSwiftDown2020 is a program of not "positive" but "negative" actions. I recognize as a positive actions those actions that create positive incentives, a positive atmosphere - for example, integration steps in relations with Belarus's neighbors, the creation of an East-Republican political, economic, diplomatic, humanitarian space, the development of an action program, renewal of symbols, etc.
I would like to note that until now the representatives of the Belarusian people have been characterized by mostly 'positive' actions - demonstration of peacefulness, civilization, readiness for negotiations. It were obvious a best qualities of the Belarusian people - humanity, ability and desire to learn, to live in a friendly atmosphere, demonstration of calls for new elections as a civilized way of resolving the conflict ... (Against this background, Lukashenko looks somehow just wildly ...).
2.3. The LukashenkoSwiftDown2020 plan is based on a 'negative' assessment of the conditional personality of an "influential Belarusian". This "conditional influential Belarusian" should influence Lukashenka. Or arrest, or overthrow, or to force to positive actions, or convince, or persuade, or plead ... Why? Because it's better to avoid disabling of SWIFT.
Does the "conditional influential Belarusian" have other motives? A desire to live in Europe? A love to motherland? The concepts of "Motherland", "Honor", etc.?
How can one awaken a best qualities in a "conditional influential Belarusian"?
This is a question worth considering ...
There is hope for a "conditional influential Russial inhabitant" - he will be afraid of losses due to the "Swift" shutdown and will influence Lukashenko ...
If he will not be afraid?
And even if he will be afraid, then will he be producing an influence?
And if he will exert an influence, then will he exert the kind, the type of influence that the representatives of the Belarusian people would like ...
2.4. The LukashenkoSwiftDown2020 is not understandable, is not clear for the broad masses of Belarusians.
As a variation of the idea 'Russian (Belarusian) House of Seleng' ['Русский дом селенга'] (the tale 'Golden Key'), this idea is understandable.
But LukashenkoSwiftDown2020 is not clear as a plan of real actions and achievements .
Let's say the prosecution of those guilty of crimes against the Belarusian people ... Do you understand this idea? Basically, it is completely understandable to any Belarusian of any level and occupation. There are perpetrators, there is a need to punish them, punishment mechanisms are launching, set in motion ... Moreover, there are historical precedents such as the Nuremberg trials ...
In LukashenkoSwiftDown2020, there is no clarity for the broad masses - who asks whom? Who decides what? Who is doing what? What happens next? There are many questions ...
The case is relatively new and not clear to the broad masses ...
It would be nice to find a man in a mysterious outfit with a magic wand - he will wave the magic wand - and - ...
3. The President of Azerbaijan, in various speeches and interviews posted on his website, focuses on the enormous organizational (and other preparatory) work that was fulfilled by him during several decades.
I suppose that Lukashenko's absurd intransigence is based not only on his psychological qualities, on external support, on secret resources, but also on decades of preparation for a crisis situation.
Representatives of the Belarusian people can and should demonstrate the own huge organizational (and other preparatory) work aimed at restoring democracy, - against the huge organizational work of Lukashenko.
To carry out this work, a real personnel (real specialists) with real knowledge and real experience are needed. Where, for example, are the retired ambassadors who parted with the Lukashenko regime? ..
To date, representatives of the Belarusian people have achieved an unattainable. In a few months, the Belarusian people gained the sympathy of the peoples of Europe and the Western World, the support of important political structures.
5. The fundamental key to achieving victory is expressed by the concept of "integration" - integration into Europe - humanitarian, cultural, migration, political, economic integration.
As a person living outside of Belarus, according to a number of indirect signs, it seems to me that ordinary Belarusians are extremely skeptical about the thesis about the victories achieved by independent Belarus over the recent thirty years. It seems to me, that ordinary Belarusians would not at all mind setting foot on the land of European civilization - in the presence of decent [decorous, reasonable] conditions ...
If such sentiments exist, then the program of necessary actions is described by the word "integration".
December 4, 2020 03:09
Translation from Russian into English: December 4, 2020 12:49.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский 'Чем мне не нравится LukashenkoSwiftDown2020. Политологический очерк'.