Аннотация: Succeeded to throw. An essay of the political economy of post-socialism.
Succeeded to throw. An essay of the political economy of post-socialism.
The maneuvers of the Lukashenko's regime around Russial economic preferences ended unexpectedly for the chief specialist in the economic development of Belarus.
Between the relatively minor topics of moderate benefits in various economic sectors, the relatively unnoticed project for the construction of the Belarusian NPP appeared.
Why "unnoticed" one?
Among the multitude of political developments, this project seemed relatively attractive and relatively safe.
It was a pseudo-attractiveness. The Belarusian nuclear power plant was supposed to be built using a Russial credit resources.
When big money comes in, it's impossible to keep track of the details.
Let's give an example. In 2017, at a high meeting, the issue of exporting untreated timber from Belarus was discussed. Where did it come from - this untreated timber? (???) It has long been instructed to process all wood in Belarus and export only processed wood! It turns out that the forest was broken by a hurricane ... In what volume? ... It's possible to take a helicopter and to see? But these are visual impressions ... How to translate them into numbers? But there are also more important problems - oil, gas and etc. In general, - for the last time !!!
So it is with the loan for the construction of the Belarusian nuclear power plant. Money were flowing - through numerous financial capillary channels - towards numerous recipients. And everyone is happy.
Why did this project seem relatively safe?
Because any skillful and dexterous person under the pretext of flaws (and these flaws were !!! They emerged many times !!!) could to delay the commissioning of this NPP indefinitely. And without acceptance - there is no obligation to repay the loan. With a lot of luck, it was possible to get money, and the project could be frozen forever - without taking the NPP into operation.
It would be a good option! Everyone would be happy! (Of course, some officials would have to grumble occasionally in favour of a political courtesy).
Was the risk of losing the money allocated for the construction of the Belarusian nuclear power plant - for those persons who were in charge of financial issues from the Russial side? Well ... Just look at the project being implemented in Turkey ... Each business has its own subtleties and its own specialists.
But the main expert on the Belarusian economy did not fit into a turn of a highway
Coincidentally, the completion of the construction of the Belarusian nuclear power plant coincided with the start of protests following the August 2020 elections.
And the great leader of independent Belarusian economic success lost his freedom of maneuver and faced an unpleasant reality. The NPP acceptance certificate had to be signed ... Pleasant and big money passed into the status of a loan obligatory for return.
The case, which among many relatively small Russial preferences seemed relatively safe and relatively attractive, grew into a huge, unnecessary loan for an amount (the exact figure was not announced) from 4 to 10 billion US dollars.
The freedom of maneuver has disappeared. They had to sign the NPP commissioning certificate.
If will not a hair be protected - a beard will disappear ...
If NPP accepted into operation, then it is necessary to put into operation ...
If it is put into operation, then it is necessary that electricity from the NPP is consumed by someone ...
This electricity is about twice as expensive as "conventional", "non-nuclear" (exact figures are not announced - how to form the tariff? - but from the thoughtful reasoning of people, close to the Belarusian nuclear energy, it turns out that it is about twice as expensive) ...
And in addition to the increased cost of an atomic kilowatt-hour, additional infrastructure costs are added.
'On January 12 [2021] at 19:57 the first power unit of the Belarusian nuclear power plant was brought to the nominal power level.' (https://telegraf.by/ehkonomika/zapustili-vo-vsju-moshh-pervyj-energoblok-belaes-vyveli-na-100/). [unofficial translation]
Another an economic a horse collar!
It is spoken about additional costs for the Belarusian people (in the usual manner) modestly and imperceptibly.
"January 16, 2021. ... The Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Belarus has approved the Program for Increasing Electricity Consumption for Heating, Hot Water Supply and Food Preparation for 2021 - 2025. (...) The program includes measures for the construction and reconstruction of electrical networks and substations of all voltage classes, as well as a set of measures to improve the regulatory legal framework to expand the use of electricity for heating and hot water supply, including the possibility of attracting funds from citizens for the reconstruction of power lines. " (https://minenergo.gov.by/utverzhdena-programma-uvelichenija-jelektropotreblenija-dlja-nuzhd-otoplenija-i-gorjachego-vodosnabzhenija/). [unofficial translation]
Many people will read these long awkward phrases and will not reach the "attracting funds from citizens for the reconstruction" ... Okay ...
If we sum up all the Russial preferences that the Belarusian economy has received over ten years thanks to the irrepressible, unrestrained work of the chief specialist in independent successful economic development, then most likely it will turn out that in total all these Russial preferences are less than the amount of a loan (credit, which nobody needs) for the construction of a nuclear power plant (the NPP, which is unprofitable for Belarus) ...
Real gamblers pull the simpleton into the game by organizing a few small wins for the simpleton, and then they empty him on a large scale ...
The simpleton believes in his luck and in his skills as a player ...
The simpleton, who considers himself a skillful player, does not give up for a long time, continues the game, tries to win back ...
[Explanation: If will not a hair be protected - a beard will disappear. Не постой за волосок - бороды не станет. - Russian proverb. Русская пословица.]
[MDCCCXXII. The politics of depressivity and the Belarusian nuclear power plant. A civilizational essay. - November 11, 2020.
MCMXX. Belarusian nuclear power plant and the export of the Russial policy of policy of depressivity. A political-economic essay. - December 25, 2020.].
January 16, 2021 12:13
Translation from Russian into English: January 17, 2021 16:38.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский 'Кинули. Очерк политической экономии пост-социализма'.