Аннотация: Octopus from Avacha Bay: "You ought to blame for my death ...". A geopolitical essay.
Octopus from Avacha Bay: "You ought to blame for my death ...". A geopolitical essay.
What is the difference between the Bureya problem (2018-2019) and the Kamchatka ecological disaster (2020) in Avacha Bay?
With the unfavorable development of events on the Bureya River, a huge political and economic changes awaited the Khabarovsk Krai - and the Far East as a whole.
In the most unfavorable, extremely unfavorable scenario - in situation of the sudden breakthrough of a spontaneous dam and when a huge wave will reach - in such a case - the territory of China, - the Far East will receive in the medium (and, possibly, in the short) term perspective - in such a case - a colossal, extremely unfavorable, geopolitical changes.
A somewhat different situation is developing with the Kamchatka ecological catastrophe (2020) - in Avacha Bay.
This - yet another - Far Eastern catastrophe does not and cannot have a direct impact on China. From the place of the Bureya problem to the territory of China, about 300 kilometers. If you believe the Internet (information is inaccurate), the distance between Alaska and Kamchatka is 5524 kilometers, and the distance between Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and China is 3486 kilometers.
In any case, there is no immediate physical threat to the Chinese territory - because of the Kamchatka ecological disaster (2020).
There is a chemical threat - in relation to the Russian Far East itself and in relation to the countries of the Pacific basin.
The Asia-Pacific region comprises 58 countries and territories (Wikipedia).
Thus, the risks of the Kamchatka ecological disaster differ significantly from the risks associated with the Bureya problem (until the moment of its solution).
The Kamchatka disaster has a long-term, general impact on the countries of the Pacific region.
I suppose that a specialist on water problems from the Far Eastern Institute of Hydrographic Problems of the Far Side of the Moon, known to the public according to his forecasts, will put forward the thesis that the harm from the Kamchatka catastrophe is much less - compared to the harm after problems at nuclear power plants in Japan. (The Astronomical Society of Far Eastern Grant Eaters will announce that the specialist has "explained everything," and the Astronomical Society's patron minister will award the specialist-predictor with an honorary medal ...).
Thus, the Kamchatka ecological disaster (2020) (in Avacha Bay) is a next regrettable, very sad, event in the general historical process of destroying the reputation of Russia as a more or less effective owner of the territories of the Far East. This process is especially noticeable in the 21st century.
We do not present a more detailed analysis of the similarities and differences between the Bureya problem (2018-2019) and the Kamchatka ecological disaster (2020) (in Avacha Bay) in this essay.
October 3, 2020 16:29
Translation from Russian into English: October 3, 2020 17:22.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский "Осьминог из Авачинской бухты: "В моей смерти прошу винить...". Геополитический очерк".